What history says · median move +1 session+5 sessions+20 sessions
ANALOG
OIL
ITA
S&P 500
TA-35
War outbreak n=10
+1.69%62%↑
−1.23%38%↑
−0.95%50%↑
+2.78%83%↑
+3.45%67%↑
−0.51%33%↑
+0.34%70%↑
−0.01%50%↑
+0.17%50%↑
−1.94%38%↑
−1.71%38%↑
−2.11%38%↑
Strike exchange n=9
+0.53%56%↑
+1.82%56%↑
−1.16%33%↑
+0.79%78%↑
+1.13%78%↑
+3.27%78%↑
−0.13%33%↑
−1.15%33%↑
+1.94%89%↑
+0.23%56%↑
+0.25%56%↑
+4.88%100%↑
Shipping/energy hit n=7
+1.83%86%↑
+3.08%86%↑
+1.11%83%↑
+0.72%71%↑
+0.84%86%↑
+3.40%67%↑
+0.08%57%↑
+0.75%57%↑
+4.29%83%↑
+0.40%57%↑
+2.17%71%↑
+1.50%100%↑
Sanctions n=6
+0.30%67%↑
+0.35%50%↑
−2.55%33%↑
+1.07%67%↑
+1.99%67%↑
+1.23%50%↑
−0.14%33%↑
+0.43%50%↑
+1.72%67%↑
+0.08%50%↑
+0.80%67%↑
+2.96%67%↑
Export controls/tariffs n=5
+0.28%60%↑
+0.16%80%↑
−7.95%40%↑
−0.42%40%↑
−2.30%40%↑
+2.66%100%↑
−2.52%20%↑
−3.58%20%↑
−0.66%40%↑
−0.72%0%↑
−1.87%40%↑
+2.54%80%↑
Taiwan drills n=2
−0.08%50%↑
−1.71%0%↑
+4.57%100%↑
−0.87%50%↑
−1.44%0%↑
−1.00%0%↑
−0.71%0%↑
−0.42%50%↑
+0.42%50%↑
−0.34%0%↑
+1.98%100%↑
+1.67%100%↑