Exposure · which flashpoints hit your book?
Median move of each asset after each live flashpoint's historical analog events. Pick the assets you hold.
FLASHPOINT
OIL
GOLD
ITA
DXY
S&P 500
VIX
USD/ILS
TA-35
SOXX
XLE
TSM
EEM
JETS
US/Israel–Iran≈ Strike exchange + War outbreak · n=19
+0.64%59%↑
−0.84%47%↑
−1.16%41%↑
+0.37%82%↑
−0.20%47%↑
−0.81%47%↑
+1.13%80%↑
+1.74%73%↑
+1.08%60%↑
+0.06%58%↑
+0.58%68%↑
−0.53%47%↑
+0.04%53%↑
−0.79%42%↑
+1.12%68%↑
+0.25 pts53%↑
+1.55 pts63%↑
−0.82 pts47%↑
+0.16%60%↑
+0.26%53%↑
−0.70%27%↑
−0.44%47%↑
−0.12%47%↑
+2.40%71%↑
−0.07%41%↑
−0.84%24%↑
−1.03%41%↑
−0.30%47%↑
−0.07%47%↑
+0.36%59%↑
−1.00%35%↑
−3.93%29%↑
−5.02%47%↑
−0.19%40%↑
−0.76%27%↑
−0.36%47%↑
−0.31%50%↑
−0.79%42%↑
+6.28%58%↑
Taiwan Strait & AI-chip controls≈ Taiwan drills + Export controls/tariffs · n=7
+0.28%57%↑
+0.09%57%↑
+0.26%57%↑
+0.07%57%↑
−1.75%43%↑
+0.82%57%↑
−0.42%43%↑
−2.09%29%↑
+2.44%71%↑
+0.09%86%↑
+0.09%57%↑
+0.18%57%↑
−0.74%14%↑
−1.99%29%↑
−0.66%43%↑
+0.84 pts86%↑
+2.18 pts71%↑
−1.90 pts43%↑
+0.07%71%↑
+1.04%86%↑
+0.15%57%↑
−0.64%0%↑
+1.31%57%↑
+2.54%86%↑
−0.73%14%↑
−4.72%29%↑
−3.75%29%↑
−0.78%29%↑
−1.54%29%↑
−2.53%43%↑
−0.30%14%↑
−4.50%14%↑
−4.01%43%↑
−0.74%14%↑
−3.62%14%↑
−0.34%43%↑
−1.80%14%↑
−2.77%14%↑
−2.72%29%↑
Russia–Ukraine≈ Sanctions + War outbreak · n=16
+0.77%64%↑
−1.23%43%↑
−1.66%43%↑
+0.47%57%↑
−0.57%50%↑
+0.33%57%↑
+2.00%75%↑
+2.45%67%↑
−0.51%42%↑
+0.15%69%↑
+0.34%69%↑
+0.24%50%↑
+0.12%56%↑
−0.01%50%↑
+0.54%56%↑
+0.10 pts50%↑
+0.80 pts50%↑
−0.14 pts50%↑
+0.07%50%↑
−0.44%25%↑
−0.48%33%↑
−0.15%43%↑
−0.03%50%↑
+0.32%50%↑
−0.13%36%↑
−0.77%36%↑
−0.96%43%↑
+0.44%57%↑
+0.17%57%↑
+0.26%64%↑
−0.10%50%↑
−1.41%43%↑
−4.54%29%↑
−0.54%42%↑
−1.35%33%↑
−0.39%42%↑
−0.60%38%↑
−3.25%13%↑
−5.03%25%↑
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb≈ Shipping/energy hit · n=7
+1.83%86%↑
+3.08%86%↑
+1.11%83%↑
+0.24%57%↑
+0.95%86%↑
+1.77%67%↑
+0.72%71%↑
+0.84%86%↑
+3.40%67%↑
+0.01%57%↑
+0.12%57%↑
+0.04%67%↑
+0.08%57%↑
+0.75%57%↑
+4.29%83%↑
+0.06 pts57%↑
+0.75 pts57%↑
−0.38 pts50%↑
+0.08%57%↑
+0.29%71%↑
−1.45%17%↑
+0.40%57%↑
+2.17%71%↑
+1.50%100%↑
−0.17%43%↑
+0.10%57%↑
+5.87%67%↑
+1.13%86%↑
+0.81%71%↑
+0.65%50%↑
+0.17%71%↑
−0.15%43%↑
+5.33%100%↑
−0.05%43%↑
−1.49%43%↑
+1.43%67%↑
−0.81%43%↑
−1.18%29%↑
+3.29%67%↑
Israel–Hezbollah & the 27 Oct Israeli election≈ Strike exchange · n=9
+0.53%56%↑
+1.82%56%↑
−1.16%33%↑
+0.32%89%↑
−0.20%44%↑
−0.81%44%↑
+0.79%78%↑
+1.13%78%↑
+3.27%78%↑
+0.06%56%↑
+0.58%78%↑
+0.56%67%↑
−0.13%33%↑
−1.15%33%↑
+1.94%89%↑
+1.55 pts67%↑
+1.55 pts78%↑
−1.82 pts33%↑
+0.08%56%↑
+0.32%67%↑
−0.70%33%↑
+0.23%56%↑
+0.25%56%↑
+4.88%100%↑
−1.27%44%↑
−3.49%11%↑
+1.00%56%↑
−0.30%44%↑
−0.71%44%↑
+1.59%56%↑
−1.67%33%↑
−3.13%22%↑
+4.75%67%↑
−0.18%44%↑
−0.76%22%↑
−0.36%44%↑
+0.19%56%↑
+0.11%56%↑
+7.28%78%↑