Gap table · crowd vs ours
| # | MARKET | FLASHPOINT | CROWD | OURS | GAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US invades Iran before 2027 | US/Israel–Iran | 19.5% | 5% | −14.5 pts |
| 2 | US–Iran ceasefire holds to Dec 31 | US/Israel–Iran | 28.5% | 20% | −8.5 pts |
| 3 | Bab el-Mandeb closed by Dec 31 | Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb | 16.5% | 10% | −6.5 pts |
| 4 | Russia–Ukraine ceasefire by Dec 31 | Russia–Ukraine | 16.5% | 10% | −6.5 pts |
| 5 | Saudi–Houthi ceasefire by Dec 31 | Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb | 20.5% | 15% | −5.5 pts |
| 6 | Peace talks held by Nov 30 | Russia–Ukraine | 75.5% | 70% | −5.5 pts |
| 7 | Peace deal signed before 2027 | Russia–Ukraine | 10.0% | 5% | −5.0 pts |
| 8 | Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31 | US/Israel–Iran | 11.5% | 8% | −3.5 pts |
| 9 | Israeli action against Beirut by Oct 31 | Israel–Hezbollah | 7.0% | 10% | +3.0 pts |
| 10 | Hezbollah disarms by Dec 31 | Israel–Hezbollah | 5.5% | 3% | −2.5 pts |
| 11 | China invades Taiwan by end-2026 | Taiwan Strait | 2.1% | 1% | −1.1 pts |
| 12 | China–Taiwan clash before 2027 | Taiwan Strait | 3.3% | 4% | +0.7 pts |
| 13 | Perim Island out of Houthi hands by Dec 31 | Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb | 20.5% | 20% | −0.5 pts |
| 14 | China blockades Taiwan in 2026 | Taiwan Strait | 2.5% | 2% | −0.5 pts |
Market context, not investment advice.